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12:02
Apr 25
Apr 25
ETH 1ST
WTI 1ST
USD/JPY 1ST
BNO 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Mispriced ETH ETF event skew
The market mispriced Ethereum options for the ETF event in May 2024. Skew was for downside, but the true risk was an approval surprise that would send ETH higher. Selling puts and buying calls (risk reversal) captured the asymmetry.
ETH LONG
Zero-cost WTI bear put spread
Implied volatility in WTI is very high, allowing a zero-cost 1x2 put spread (buy one higher-strike put, sell two lower-strike puts) to bet on a sharp move lower if a deal reopens Hormuz. The structure benefits from vol compression and the right tail of a crash.
WTI SHORT
Zero-cost USDJPY call ladder
A zero-cost 1x2 call ladder on USDJPY (buy 157.50 call, sell two 159.50 calls) profits from a grind higher in the pair, as 160 is a key intervention level. Asymmetry from the capped payoff and cheap premium due to high vol.
USD/JPY LONG
Long Brent for backwardation and asymmetry
Long Brent crude is attractive because the backwardation provides positive carry, and the asymmetric risk of a spike higher, given structural inventory draws and the potential for a sudden re-escalation, makes it a good trade.
BNO LONG
Sell S&P call spreads in high vol
During a week of sideways price action in S&P 500 with elevated implied vol and extremely rich put skew, selling call spreads (sell ATM call, buy a cheaper call) was the right expression to harvest premium with limited risk.
SPY SHORT
Structural bull market in energy stocks
The energy sector is in a new structural bull market due to years of underinvestment and the geopolitical shift toward energy security. The recent pullback is a buying opportunity; XOP chart shows a breakout from a long base.
XOP LONG
Gold in correction, avoid adding
Gold had a parabolic blowoff top after a two-year bull run and is now in a correction/consolidation phase. It cannot clear its 50-day MA or Fibonacci resistance. Investors should avoid adding exposure for now.
GLD AVOID
Bitcoin rally is only oversold bounce
Bitcoin's rally is just an oversold bounce in a risk-on environment, not a new bull market. It has not cleared any major resistance levels and lacks the conviction seen in other risk assets.
BTC AVOID
Japan equities: buy and forget
Japan's equity market is a long-term buy-and-forget position, supported by structural reforms, corporate governance improvements, and a semiconductor tailwind. The Nikkei is at 52-week highs and should be held.
EWJ LONG
Gold miners could outperform gold
Gold miners may offer a place to hide relative to gold itself, as Newmont's earnings were solid and the group could grind higher even if gold stays in a choppy range.
GDX LONG
HIGH
15:25
Apr 11
Apr 11
GLD 1ST
XEG 1ST
TLT 1ST
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries 1ST
BIZD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Central bank gold buying drives long-term bull.
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, especially the People's Bank of China, which will continue accumulating for years. The recent geopolitical sell-off was a cleansing of speculative positions, creating a buying opportunity. The thesis is not about short-term war premiums but about structural demand from reserve diversification.
GLD LONG
Energy stocks underowned, cheap, structural bull.
Energy stocks remain underowned and undervalued relative to the structural tailwinds from underinvestment, geopolitical supply risks, and the likely persistence of elevated oil prices. Canadian energy is particularly attractive given long-life reserves and potential pipeline developments. The sector is still cheap despite being the best performer over the past year.
XEG LONG
Long bonds contrarian bet on slowdown.
Long-dated US Treasuries (30-year) present a compelling risk/reward over a 3-9 month horizon because CTAs are now max short bonds, the economy is facing headwinds from high oil and tight credit conditions, and a recession would trigger a significant bond rally. However, timing is difficult as another leg down is possible if oil spikes further.
TLT LONG
Short-end bonds benefit from recession.
Short-term Treasury yields (2s and 5s) are attractive because the economy is perched on a precarious ledge and the Fed will eventually cut rates. Front-end bonds provide a cleaner way to play the recession outcome without the duration risk of the long end.
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries LONG
Short high yield and BDCs as recession plays.
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
BIZD SHORT
HYG SHORT
Long volatility on Trump-era uncertainty.
In the current Trump-driven environment of wild geopolitical gyrations and unpredictable policy, owning long-term volatility (via options) is a prudent portfolio hedge and profit opportunity. The large moves are likely to persist, and long-dated volatility allows patience while structural uncertainty remains elevated.
Long-term VIX options LONG
US dollar to fall as release valve.
The US dollar is the ultimate release valve for the fiscal and geopolitical pressures. With the rest of the world repatriating capital, Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, and the massive US fiscal deficit, the dollar is set to decline. This is a cleaner bet than shorting bonds because the government will fight rising yields but not a weaker currency.
US Dollar (DXY) SHORT
Chinese bonds best performers, buy for total return.
Chinese government bonds have been the best-performing major bond market over the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. The Chinese economy is managed for bondholders, offering total returns that outpace Western bond markets. Despite low nominal yields, the total return story is compelling and often overlooked by investors fixated on equity returns.
CBON LONG
HIGH
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