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14:01
Jun 20
Jun 20
NE 1ST
GLNCY 1ST
VALE 1ST
RIO 1ST
AA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Expert commodity producer basket for bull cycle
Commodity markets may be in an early bull cycle. Rather than trading commodities directly, owning a basket of leading commodity producer/marketing companies (Noble, Glencore, Vale, Rio Tinto, Alcoa) provides exposure to the cycle with dividend income and the expertise of professional commodity traders. He remains invested in this wedge of names.
NE LONG
GLNCY LONG
VALE LONG
RIO LONG
AA LONG
EM commodity exporters benefit from commodity cycle
The commodity bull cycle should benefit commodity-exporting emerging markets. He has never owned international equities before, but now holds country ETFs for Colombia, Chile, Peru, Africa (mainly South Africa gold miners), Turkey, Israel and India as a different way to play commodities.
ICOL LONG
ECH LONG
EPU LONG
EZA LONG
TUR LONG
EIS LONG
INDA LONG
Buy long bonds on hawkish Fed
The Fed's hawkish pivot is positive for long bonds because a central bank committed to price stability protects bondholders. The 30-year Treasury yield tested and held 5% major support, the long bond rallied on the hawkish news, and history shows bonds like a hawkish Fed. He believes you can buy 30s now.
TLT LONG
Long yen for risk-off reversal
A sustained US dollar rally is likely to eventually trigger a risk-off event, and in a risk-off environment the Japanese yen should rally as a safe haven. He remains long the yen despite current dollar strength, expecting the risk-off reversal to pay off.
FXY LONG
S&P 500 stays bid into IPO cycle
After a 5% correction, the S&P 500 typically resumes its directional move without an immediate second sharp decline. The peace-deal gap neutralized the sell cycle, and with giant AI IPOs (OpenAI, Anthropic) coming in Q3, the market will likely stay bid through the issuance cycle before eventually topping.
SPY LONG
SPR replenishment drives oil demand higher
The sharp crude oil sell-off was a forced liquidation cascade driven by too many crowded longs, not a fundamental surplus. Inventories remain tight after wartime drawdowns, and oil should recover toward the $85-95 range once forced selling abates and the replenishment cycle begins.
USO LONG
Long-term bull market in energy stocks
Energy stocks are breaking out of a multi-decade bear market. Structural underinvestment, renewed geopolitical focus on energy security, and a long-term commodity bull cycle support a multi-year bull market in energy equities (XLE), despite potential short-term tactical pullbacks.
XLE LONG
HIGH
08:13
Jun 12
Jun 12
MAGS 1ST
SPY 1ST
WTI
GDX
GLD FLIP
▾
HIGH
Mag 7 issuance signals market top.
The Mag 7 stocks have suddenly flipped from massive share buybacks to heavy secondary issuance (Google, Meta, SMCI), signalling a market top and a supply overhang that passive flows can no longer absorb. Patrick calls this his main short, noting the group has been lagging badly.
MAGS SHORT
Sell rips, short S&P 500.
The market is extremely overbought, showing clear distribution on hourly charts with every rally sold. Systematic selling triggers (CTAs) sit near 7,300 on the S&P, and an unprecedented wave of IPOs and secondary deals (SpaceX, Google, Meta) is draining cash. The time has come to sell the rips and short the S&P 500.
SPY SHORT
Physical crude tightness demands bullish oil.
Cushing oil inventories are at tank bottom, physically constraining the system. The market is complacent, convinced a Strait of Hormuz deal is imminent, while Trump’s optimism has capped price signals and discouraged new supply. Every day that passes makes the oil bull case stronger, as a violent price spike becomes more likely.
WTI LONG
Zero sentiment screams buy gold miners.
Gold miner sentiment just hit zero—an extreme contrarian buy signal. Miners are deeply washed out and offer powerful leverage to a gold rebound, making them even more attractive than the metal itself.
GDX LONG
Gold breakdown entering deeper reversion.
Gold has broken below its 50‑week moving average for the first time since 2023, ending a two‑year bull run and entering a deep mean‑reversion. With a strong dollar and rising rates creating a negative backdrop, gold faces a challenging summer and further downside toward measured Fib targets.
GLD AVOID
Uranium washout; wait for dead carcass.
Uranium equities have completed a head‑and‑shoulders top and broken to new lows, entering a vicious washout cycle that could last months and match prior 50‑56% drawdowns. Once the bloodletting finishes, it will be an epic buying opportunity, but for now the trend is decisively lower.
Uranium Equities WATCH
Long SOFR futures; rates can’t stay high.
Kevin constructed a ratio put spread on Dec‑2026 SOFR futures (long 96 put, short two further OTM puts) that profits if rates fail to rise significantly. Even 50bp of additional hikes would likely stall the economy and send rates the other way, making the low‑risk trade attractive.
SOFR futures LONG
HIGH
16:07
Jun 06
Jun 06
RSP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equal-weight S&P reduces AI concentration risk.
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) is a smart allocation to reduce concentration risk from mega-cap tech stocks, as the index contains profitable large companies and historically outperforms market-cap weight over long periods, and it allows investors to stay invested in equities while avoiding the 'inshitification' of the cap-weighted index. Blending with quality or momentum factors can further smooth the ride.
RSP LONG
HIGH
15:38
May 23
May 23
GLD 1ST
REMX 1ST
BNO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold is core holding.
Gold is the core holding, supported by central bank buying, low volatility within an uptrend, and its role as a store of value. He uses gold as his 'bank' to rotate into other trades. Price consolidation above $4,500 is healthy, and the long-term bullish narrative remains intact.
GLD LONG
Rare earth metals outperform.
Rare earth metals will be the winning sector for the year. China has weaponized the periodic table, resource nationalism is rising, and the sector has already outperformed within mining. Scramble for supply and geopolitical tensions support further upside.
REMX LONG
Oil higher on Strait impairment.
The Strait of Hormuz is permanently impaired due to the Iran conflict, and even a peace deal will not fully restore oil flows. Supply constraints, draining SPR, and maxed-out refineries will force oil prices higher, potentially spiking to $200. The flat price is suppressed by speculative disinterest, but physical tightness builds. He is long energy stocks and expects oil to grind higher.
BNO LONG
HIGH
13:29
May 10
May 10
LITHIUM 1ST
Aluminum 1ST
SMH
FXI 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Lithium shortages ahead
Lithium is likely to see shortages as early as second half of 2026 due to strong demand from EVs and storage, while anti-involution limits supply expansion. Prices are not stuck at current lows and will rise to incentivize new projects.
LITHIUM LONG
Long aluminum for margin recovery
Aluminum is a long because China's anti-involution campaign means they will no longer compete on margins down to zero, leading to higher profitability for the industry globally.
Aluminum LONG
SMH parabolic top in May
Semiconductors (SMH) are in a parabolic blowoff top, 53% above their 50-week moving average in just four weeks, similar to silver's recent top. The swing high is likely to occur within May, possibly within days. This does not necessarily mean a market crash but a sector rotation.
SMH WATCH
China stocks are a buy
Chinese equities are attractive because anti-involution policies are ending producer price deflation, leading to PPI inflation, healthier earnings, and a more responsive consumer. Market reforms incentivize dividends and buybacks, and net issuance turned negative for the first time. Consumer savings are huge and only 7% in equities, poised to flow in as inflation erodes cash.
FXI LONG
Long oil asymmetric risk/reward
Oil is a no-brainer long because the risk/reward is asymmetric: if Hormuz conflict is resolved, oil may fall ~$10 to the low $80s, but if it worsens, oil could spike $30+ to $120-150. Structural inventory depletion and physical market tightness provide a floor, while the market is overly complacent.
WTI LONG
Long wheat at pullback
Wheat is an attractive re-entry point on the pullback to the 50-day moving average, as it is an asymmetric trade tied to food shortage and Hormuz headlines, with potential for a sharp move higher.
WEAT LONG
HIGH
12:02
Apr 25
Apr 25
GLD FLIP
GDX 1ST
EWJ 1ST
BNO FLIP
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold in correction, avoid adding
Gold had a parabolic blowoff top after a two-year bull run and is now in a correction/consolidation phase. It cannot clear its 50-day MA or Fibonacci resistance. Investors should avoid adding exposure for now.
GLD AVOID
Gold miners could outperform gold
Gold miners may offer a place to hide relative to gold itself, as Newmont's earnings were solid and the group could grind higher even if gold stays in a choppy range.
GDX LONG
Japan equities: buy and forget
Japan's equity market is a long-term buy-and-forget position, supported by structural reforms, corporate governance improvements, and a semiconductor tailwind. The Nikkei is at 52-week highs and should be held.
EWJ LONG
Long Brent for backwardation and asymmetry
Long Brent crude is attractive because the backwardation provides positive carry, and the asymmetric risk of a spike higher, given structural inventory draws and the potential for a sudden re-escalation, makes it a good trade.
BNO LONG
Mispriced ETH ETF event skew
The market mispriced Ethereum options for the ETF event in May 2024. Skew was for downside, but the true risk was an approval surprise that would send ETH higher. Selling puts and buying calls (risk reversal) captured the asymmetry.
ETH LONG
Structural bull market in energy stocks
The energy sector is in a new structural bull market due to years of underinvestment and the geopolitical shift toward energy security. The recent pullback is a buying opportunity; XOP chart shows a breakout from a long base.
XOP LONG
Zero-cost WTI bear put spread
Implied volatility in WTI is very high, allowing a zero-cost 1x2 put spread (buy one higher-strike put, sell two lower-strike puts) to bet on a sharp move lower if a deal reopens Hormuz. The structure benefits from vol compression and the right tail of a crash.
WTI SHORT
Sell S&P call spreads in high vol
During a week of sideways price action in S&P 500 with elevated implied vol and extremely rich put skew, selling call spreads (sell ATM call, buy a cheaper call) was the right expression to harvest premium with limited risk.
SPY SHORT
Zero-cost USDJPY call ladder
A zero-cost 1x2 call ladder on USDJPY (buy 157.50 call, sell two 159.50 calls) profits from a grind higher in the pair, as 160 is a key intervention level. Asymmetry from the capped payoff and cheap premium due to high vol.
USD/JPY LONG
Bitcoin rally is only oversold bounce
Bitcoin's rally is just an oversold bounce in a risk-on environment, not a new bull market. It has not cleared any major resistance levels and lacks the conviction seen in other risk assets.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
15:25
Apr 11
Apr 11
BIZD 1ST
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries
HYG 1ST
CBON 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short high yield and BDCs as recession plays.
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
BIZD SHORT
HYG SHORT
Short-end bonds benefit from recession.
Short-term Treasury yields (2s and 5s) are attractive because the economy is perched on a precarious ledge and the Fed will eventually cut rates. Front-end bonds provide a cleaner way to play the recession outcome without the duration risk of the long end.
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries LONG
Chinese bonds best performers, buy for total return.
Chinese government bonds have been the best-performing major bond market over the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. The Chinese economy is managed for bondholders, offering total returns that outpace Western bond markets. Despite low nominal yields, the total return story is compelling and often overlooked by investors fixated on equity returns.
CBON LONG
Central bank gold buying drives long-term bull.
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, especially the People's Bank of China, which will continue accumulating for years. The recent geopolitical sell-off was a cleansing of speculative positions, creating a buying opportunity. The thesis is not about short-term war premiums but about structural demand from reserve diversification.
GLD LONG
Energy stocks underowned, cheap, structural bull.
Energy stocks remain underowned and undervalued relative to the structural tailwinds from underinvestment, geopolitical supply risks, and the likely persistence of elevated oil prices. Canadian energy is particularly attractive given long-life reserves and potential pipeline developments. The sector is still cheap despite being the best performer over the past year.
XEG LONG
Long volatility on Trump-era uncertainty.
In the current Trump-driven environment of wild geopolitical gyrations and unpredictable policy, owning long-term volatility (via options) is a prudent portfolio hedge and profit opportunity. The large moves are likely to persist, and long-dated volatility allows patience while structural uncertainty remains elevated.
Long-term VIX options LONG
US dollar to fall as release valve.
The US dollar is the ultimate release valve for the fiscal and geopolitical pressures. With the rest of the world repatriating capital, Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, and the massive US fiscal deficit, the dollar is set to decline. This is a cleaner bet than shorting bonds because the government will fight rising yields but not a weaker currency.
US Dollar (DXY) SHORT
Long bonds contrarian bet on slowdown.
Long-dated US Treasuries (30-year) present a compelling risk/reward over a 3-9 month horizon because CTAs are now max short bonds, the economy is facing headwinds from high oil and tight credit conditions, and a recession would trigger a significant bond rally. However, timing is difficult as another leg down is possible if oil spikes further.
TLT LONG
HIGH
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